Manchester Square Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Manchester Square is a narrow South LA strip just north of LAX, between the 405 Freeway and Aviation Boulevard. Most of the residential fabric was acquired and cleared by LAX over decades for noise mitigation; the neighborhood is now mostly cleared lots and remaining low-rise commercial along Manchester and Century.
Three signals surfaced in Manchester Square this March — two single-month below-trend moves and one sustained structural shift. The shape is broadly downward, with the sustained shift in motor vehicle theft giving the property-crime decline longer-term weight beyond just a quiet month.
Burglary and motor vehicle theft both ran below trend in March; motor vehicle theft also registers as a multi-month structural shift, with the trailing 12-month total at 51 against 97 in the prior year — down 47.4%. Burglary has followed a similar arc, falling from 22 to 13 incidents over the same comparison window, against a baseline mean of 37.21. The remaining tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, other larceny, and vandalism — all came in within range.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 13 incidents — about 65% below the 37 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 51 incidents — about 63% below the 137 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 51, down 47% from 97 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manchester Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Lake View Terrace
13 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Manchester Square's 13.
Open page →Beverlywood
12 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Manchester Square's 13.
Open page →Harbor City
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Manchester Square's 13.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manchester Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.