Manchester Square Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Manchester Square is a narrow South LA strip just north of LAX, between the 405 Freeway and Aviation Boulevard. Most of the residential fabric was acquired and cleared by LAX over decades for noise mitigation; the neighborhood is now mostly cleared lots and remaining low-rise commercial along Manchester and Century.
Manchester Square produced a single notable signal in August 2026: a sustained below-trend read on burglary. The rest of the tracked categories, robbery, aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism, were within their expected ranges for the month.
Burglary is down 38.9% against the prior 12 months, 11 incidents in the current window vs 18 in the year before. That decline is the one category that cleared the anomaly threshold. On the other side of the ledger, theft from vehicle is up 60.5% over the same 12-month span, 61 vs 38, and robbery is up 46.2%, 19 vs 13, though neither crossed into anomaly territory this month. The structural picture in Manchester Square is mixed: property theft rising while burglary recedes.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 11 incidents — about 69% below the 35 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manchester Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Elysian Park
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Manchester Square's 11.
Open page →Mount Washington
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Manchester Square's 11.
Open page →Lake View Terrace
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Manchester Square's 11.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manchester Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.