Leimert Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Leimert Park is a South LA neighborhood organized around Leimert Park Plaza and the Crenshaw Boulevard and Vernon Avenue intersection. Anchored by the historic Vision Theatre, the Metro K Line's Leimert Park station, and a long jazz and arts retail corridor.
Eight categories moved in Leimert Park this March — five ran below trend for the month and three registered as sustained structural shifts, meaning the decline is not just a one-month dip. The shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare-event signals in the mix.
Vandalism, other larceny, and aggravated assault led the below-trend signals. Aggravated assault is down 42.9% over the trailing 12 months (48 incidents vs. 84 in the prior year); other larceny is down 67.8% (39 vs. 121); burglary has dropped 60.0% to 12 incidents from 30. Three of those moves are classified as sustained shifts, not single-month noise — the pattern has held long enough to register as a structural change in the 12-month window.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 75 incidents — about 23% below the 97 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 66% below the 113 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 48 incidents — about 46% below the 89 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 12 incidents — about 72% below the 43 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 47% below the 105 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 39, down 68% from 121 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 48, down 43% from 84 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 41% from 88 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Leimert Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Adams-Normandie
79 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Leimert Park's 75.
Open page →Hollywood Hills West
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Leimert Park's 75.
Open page →Glassell Park
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Leimert Park's 75.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Leimert Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.