Leimert Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Leimert Park is a South LA neighborhood organized around Leimert Park Plaza and the Crenshaw Boulevard and Vernon Avenue intersection. Anchored by the historic Vision Theatre, the Metro K Line's Leimert Park station, and a long jazz and arts retail corridor.
Seven categories moved in Leimert Park in April 2026 — five one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The direction is uniformly downward: no spikes, no rare events, no streak breaks. This is a broad-based reduction across both violent and property crime categories.
Vandalism, other larceny, and aggravated assault led the below-trend signals this month. The 12-month totals show the scale of the longer moves: aggravated assault is down 45.8% against the prior year (45 incidents vs. 83), burglary is down 61.3% (12 vs. 31), and other larceny is down 70.3% (35 vs. 118). The two sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't single-month dips — the structural baseline has shifted lower across multiple categories.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 74 incidents — about 24% below the 97 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 35 incidents — about 69% below the 113 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 49% below the 89 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 12 incidents — about 72% below the 43 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 47% below the 104 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 35, down 70% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 45, down 46% from 83 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Leimert Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Adams-Normandie
75 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Leimert Park's 74.
Open page →Hollywood Hills West
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Leimert Park's 74.
Open page →Palms
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Leimert Park's 74.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Leimert Park has spiked motor vehicle theft historically (11 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicle theft | 11 | 100% |
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Leimert Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Leimert Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.