Lake View Terrace Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Lake View Terrace is a northeastern San Fernando Valley neighborhood at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains, organized around Foothill Boulevard and the Hansen Dam recreation area.
Lake View Terrace had no tracked signals in March 2026 — zero spikes, zero drops, no sustained shifts. The one signal in the system is structural: homicide registered as a zero-event, meaning the category produced no incidents across the trailing window. That is the defining feature of this month's mix.
The 12-month YoY picture is more varied. Motor vehicle theft is down 57.8% against the prior year (19 incidents vs. 45), and other larceny is down 40.6% (19 vs. 32). Robbery moved in the opposite direction — 12 incidents in the current 12 months against 6 in the year before, a 100.0% increase on a small base. Vandalism is also up 40.0% year-over-year (35 vs. 25). Theft from vehicle held flat at 28. None of these moves crossed the anomaly threshold this month, but the robbery and vandalism year-over-year shifts are the categories to watch going forward.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lake View Terrace compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Adams-Normandie
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Lake View Terrace's 0.
Open page →Arlington Heights
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Lake View Terrace's 0.
Open page →Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Lake View Terrace's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lake View Terrace, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.