Harbor Gateway Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Harbor Gateway is the narrow 5-mile-long strip of city land along the 110 Freeway that connects central Los Angeles to its Harbor neighborhoods, sandwiched between Gardena and Carson. A mix of light industrial along Western and Vermont with residential pockets between Artesia and 190th.
Harbor Gateway had nine tracked signals in March 2026 — five below-trend drops and four sustained structural shifts. The month's shape is broadly and consistently downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events anywhere in the mix.
Motor Vehicle Theft leads the signal list: the trailing 12-month total is 105, down 55.1% against the prior year's 234 and well below the multi-year baseline. Theft from Vehicle and Burglary also ran below trend — down 24.8% (106 vs. 141) and 19.4% (50 vs. 62), respectively. The four sustained-shift signals indicate these are not single-month dips; categories like Other Larceny (137 vs. 218, −37.2%) and Aggravated Assault (94 vs. 144, −34.7%) reflect multi-year structural moves, not noise.
Notable signals 5
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 105 incidents — about 69% below the 341 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 53% below the 224 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 55% below the 112 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 94 incidents — about 33% below the 141 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 137 incidents — about 30% below the 197 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 105, down 55% from 234 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 137, down 37% from 218 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 94, down 35% from 144 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 145, down 27% from 198 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harbor Gateway compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Mid-City
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harbor Gateway's 105.
Open page →Venice
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harbor Gateway's 105.
Open page →North Hills
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Harbor Gateway's 105.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harbor Gateway, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.