Harbor Gateway Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Harbor Gateway is the narrow 5-mile-long strip of city land along the 110 Freeway that connects central Los Angeles to its Harbor neighborhoods, sandwiched between Gardena and Carson. A mix of light industrial along Western and Vermont with residential pockets between Artesia and 190th.
Nine tracked signals surfaced in Harbor Gateway this April — five one-month below-trend drops and four sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime categories, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft leads the signals: the trailing 12-month total of 110 incidents is down 50.7% against the prior year's 223, a structural collapse that stands out even in a month full of declines. Aggravated assault follows at 86 incidents, down 43.8% against the prior 12 months (153), and theft from vehicle sits at 110 against 121 a year earlier, down 9.1%. Other larceny and vandalism both carry sustained-shift signals as well — down 33.6% and 28.9% year-over-year, respectively — reinforcing that the downward movement in Harbor Gateway spans multiple categories and has been in place long enough to register as structural, not just a single quiet month.
Notable signals 5
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 67% below the 338 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 86 incidents — about 39% below the 141 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 51% below the 222 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 50% below the 111 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 142 incidents — about 28% below the 197 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 110, down 51% from 223 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 86, down 44% from 153 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 142, down 34% from 214 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 143, down 29% from 201 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harbor Gateway compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Adams-Normandie
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harbor Gateway's 110.
Open page →Canoga Park
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harbor Gateway's 110.
Open page →Lincoln Heights
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harbor Gateway's 110.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Harbor Gateway has spiked other larceny historically (5 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 5 | 100% |
| Sexual assault | 3 | — too few |
Each row shows Harbor Gateway's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harbor Gateway, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.