Adams-Normandie Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Adams-Normandie is a South LA neighborhood organized around the West Adams Boulevard and Normandie Avenue intersection. Predominantly Craftsman bungalows and historic mansions on a tight grid; bordered by USC to the east.
April 2026 produced two signals in Adams-Normandie, both concentrated in a single category: other larceny generated a one-month below-trend signal and a sustained structural shift in the same briefing. The structural shift is the more significant read — it reflects a multi-year compression, not just a quiet April.
Other larceny sits at 26 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down 74.3% against the prior-year total of 101 and well below a multi-year baseline of 77.64. The remaining categories were within range: burglary is down 51.5% on the year (16 incidents vs. 33), theft from vehicle is down 30.2% (67 vs. 96), and robbery is down 25.0% (24 vs. 32) — none crossed the anomaly threshold this month, but the broader property-crime picture across Adams-Normandie is broadly lower year-over-year.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 67% below the 78 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 26, down 74% from 101 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Adams-Normandie compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Gramercy Park
27 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Adams-Normandie's 26.
Open page →Toluca Lake
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Adams-Normandie's 26.
Open page →Cheviot Hills
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Adams-Normandie's 26.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Adams-Normandie has spiked motor vehicle theft historically (13 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicle theft | 13 | 100% |
| Other larceny | 6 | 33.3% |
| Burglary | 4 | — too few |
| Theft from vehicle | 3 | — too few |
| Vandalism | 3 | — too few |
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Adams-Normandie's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Adams-Normandie, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.