Adams-Normandie Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Adams-Normandie is a South LA neighborhood organized around the West Adams Boulevard and Normandie Avenue intersection. Predominantly Craftsman bungalows and historic mansions on a tight grid; bordered by USC to the east.
Two signals surfaced in Adams-Normandie this March — one single-month drop and one sustained structural shift, both concentrated in a single category. That narrow profile reflects a month with broad stability across most of the neighborhood's tracked crime types; the action is essentially all in one place.
Other larceny is carrying both signals. The 12-month total has fallen to 23 incidents, down 78.5% against the prior year's 107 — the sharpest year-over-year move in the neighborhood's tracked categories this month. Burglary and theft from vehicle are also running lower on a 12-month basis (down 33.3% and 28.7% respectively), but neither crossed the threshold for a notable signal this month. Aggravated assault is the one counter-trend: 76 incidents over the current 12 months, up 11.8% against 68 in the prior period, though it did not generate a signal this briefing either.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 70% below the 77 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 23, down 79% from 107 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Adams-Normandie compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manchester Square
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Adams-Normandie's 23.
Open page →Larchmont
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Adams-Normandie's 23.
Open page →Playa del Rey
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Adams-Normandie's 23.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Adams-Normandie, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.