Harbor City Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Harbor City is a South Bay neighborhood between Wilmington and San Pedro, organized around Pacific Coast Highway and Western Avenue. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes and small apartment buildings, anchored by Harbor City Marketplace, Ken Malloy Harbor Regional Park, and Narbonne High School.
Three signals shaped Harbor City's August 2026 briefing: one single-month below-trend reading and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant story is aggravated assault, which registered both a one-month drop and a multi-year downward structural shift, the strongest combination of signals this month. Other larceny runs in the opposite direction, a sustained upward shift that has been building across the trailing 12 months.
Aggravated assault stands at 43 incidents over the current 12 months, down from 80 in the prior year, a 46.2% decline. That compression is the structural shift, not just a quiet August. Other larceny moved the other way: 101 incidents against 64 in the prior 12 months, up 57.8%. Everything else in the tracked categories, robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and sexual assault, fell within range without crossing a signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 38% below the 70 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 46% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 101, up 58% from 64 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harbor City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Eagle Rock
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harbor City's 43.
Open page →Lake Balboa
41 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Harbor City's 43.
Open page →Hollywood Hills
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Harbor City's 43.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harbor City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.