Harbor City Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Harbor City is a South Bay neighborhood between Wilmington and San Pedro, organized around Pacific Coast Highway and Western Avenue. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes and small apartment buildings, anchored by Harbor City Marketplace, Ken Malloy Harbor Regional Park, and Narbonne High School.
Harbor City logged six tracked signals in April 2026 — five below-trend drops and one sustained shift. The breadth is property-crime-wide: motor vehicle theft, theft from vehicle, other larceny, and vandalism all ran below trend in the same month, a coordinated downward pattern rather than a single outlier.
Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest of the signals, with the current 12-month total at 17 against a baseline mean of 148.68 — down 80.5% year-over-year. Theft from vehicle follows a similar arc, falling 76.2% against the prior 12 months (19 incidents vs. 80). Other larceny ran below trend as well, down 44.1% on a 12-month basis. The remaining categories in the portfolio — robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, burglary — are also tracking lower year-over-year, with no category registering a spike or rare-event signal this month.
Notable signals 5
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 17 incidents — about 89% below the 149 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 86% below the 138 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 73% below the 71 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 79% below the 65 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 56 incidents — about 35% below the 87 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 45, down 47% from 85 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harbor City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Hancock Park
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Harbor City's 17.
Open page →Lake View Terrace
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Harbor City's 17.
Open page →Toluca Lake
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Harbor City's 17.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Harbor Citydoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 4 | — too few |
| Motor vehicle theft | 2 | — too few |
| Burglary | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Harbor City's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harbor City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.