Harbor City Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Harbor City is a South Bay neighborhood between Wilmington and San Pedro, organized around Pacific Coast Highway and Western Avenue. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes and small apartment buildings, anchored by Harbor City Marketplace, Ken Malloy Harbor Regional Park, and Narbonne High School.
Seven categories moved in Harbor City this month — five ran below trend on a single-month basis, two registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes or rare events anywhere in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft leads the month's signals: the trailing 12-month total stands at 16 incidents against a prior-year count of 96, down 83.3%. Theft from vehicle follows a similar trajectory, falling 77.3% year-over-year to 20 incidents from 88. Other larceny also ran below trend, and aggravated assault posted the steepest decline among violent categories — 44 incidents in the current 12 months against 87 in the prior period, down 49.4%. Every other tracked category was within that same downward range; nothing moved against the grain.
Notable signals 5
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 16 incidents — about 89% below the 150 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 86% below the 139 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 74% below the 72 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 79% below the 66 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 44 incidents — about 38% below the 71 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 20, down 77% from 88 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 44, down 49% from 87 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harbor City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Cheviot Hills
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harbor City's 16.
Open page →Playa del Rey
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Harbor City's 16.
Open page →Beverlywood
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Harbor City's 16.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harbor City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.