Granada Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Granada Hills is a northern San Fernando Valley neighborhood at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains, organized around Chatsworth Street and Balboa Boulevard. Predominantly single-family homes; anchored by O'Melveny Park, one of the largest parks in the city.
Four categories moved in Granada Hills this March — one single-month below-trend signal and three sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year pullback across property crime: burglary, other larceny, and vandalism are all down against their prior 12-month baselines by wide margins, not just a quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is the month's sharpest single signal, with a current 12-month total of 243 against a baseline mean of 345.88 — and down 15.6% against the prior year's 288. Burglary's sustained shift is the most dramatic in the data: 139 incidents over the current 12 months versus 272 in the prior period, a 48.9% reduction. Other larceny follows the same structural pattern, down 26.5% to 202 from 275. Every other tracked category was within normal range.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 243 incidents — about 30% below the 346 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 139, down 49% from 272 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 153, down 43% from 266 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 202, down 27% from 275 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Granada Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Sherman Oaks
247 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Granada Hills's 243.
Open page →Studio City
253 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Granada Hills's 243.
Open page →Pacoima
228 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Granada Hills's 243.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Granada Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.