Gramercy Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Gramercy Park is a small Mid-City residential neighborhood between Pico and Olympic, west of Crenshaw and east of Hauser. Predominantly Spanish-style bungalows and small apartment courts on a quiet grid; named for the small triangular Gramercy Park itself.
Two sustained structural shifts define Gramercy Park's July 2026 briefing, pulling the neighborhood in opposite directions. Aggravated assault is running well below its prior-year pace, a multi-month pattern rather than a single quiet month, while motor vehicle theft has moved the other way, also as a structural shift, not a one-month anomaly. Every other tracked category fell within normal range.
Aggravated assault is down 42.9% over the trailing 12 months, 60 incidents against 105 in the year before. Burglary and robbery show similar directional moves in the 12-month totals, down 43.6% and 25.0% respectively, though neither crossed the threshold for a formal signal this period. Motor vehicle theft, by contrast, has doubled year over year, 90 incidents against 45, and that doubling is the counterweight to an otherwise broadly downward picture across violent and property crime.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 90, up 100% from 45 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 60, down 43% from 105 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Gramercy Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Los Feliz
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Gramercy Park's 60.
Open page →Granada Hills
59 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Gramercy Park's 60.
Open page →Arleta
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Gramercy Park's 60.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Gramercy Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.