Gramercy Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Gramercy Park is a small Mid-City residential neighborhood between Pico and Olympic, west of Crenshaw and east of Hauser. Predominantly Spanish-style bungalows and small apartment courts on a quiet grid; named for the small triangular Gramercy Park itself.
March 2026 produced a single structural signal in Gramercy Park: one sustained shift, no spikes, no rare events. The month's picture is narrow — one category broke from its multi-year pattern while the rest of the tracked buckets stayed within their usual ranges.
Other larceny is the sustained shift, down 51.7% against the prior 12 months — 29 incidents in the current window versus 60 in the year before. The broader property crime picture leans downward too: burglary is down 39.5% (26 vs 43), vandalism down 28.0% (54 vs 75), and aggravated assault down 32.0% (68 vs 100). Robbery and theft from vehicle both moved in the opposite direction — robbery is up 37.5% to 44 incidents — but neither registered as an anomaly this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 29, down 52% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Gramercy Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Griffith Park
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Gramercy Park's 29.
Open page →Beverly Crest
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Gramercy Park's 29.
Open page →Toluca Lake
27 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Gramercy Park's 29.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Gramercy Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.