Beverly Crest Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Beverly Crest is a hillside neighborhood in the Santa Monica Mountains north of Beverly Hills, organized around Coldwater Canyon Drive and Mulholland Drive. Predominantly large hillside homes on winding canyon streets; bordered by Beverly Hills to the south and Sherman Oaks across Mulholland to the north.
Beverly Crest had a single notable signal in March 2026: one category moved, one direction, and the rest of the month was within range. Burglary registered a below-trend signal against a backdrop where five of the six tracked categories have fallen over the trailing 12 months — the overall shape is one of broad, structural decline in property crime.
Burglary sits at 15 incidents over the current 12 months, down 25.0% from 20 in the prior year. Other Larceny and Motor Vehicle Theft show even steeper 12-month drops — down 28.2% and 36.4% respectively. Theft from Vehicle is the one exception, edging 5.6% above the prior year, but the volume remains low at 19 incidents. Everything else tracked within normal range this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 15 incidents — about 60% below the 38 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Beverly Crest compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Playa Vista
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Beverly Crest's 15.
Open page →Carthay
16 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Beverly Crest's 15.
Open page →Elysian Valley
16 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Beverly Crest's 15.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beverly Crest, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.