Glassell Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Glassell Park is a Northeast LA neighborhood between the Glendale border and the Los Angeles River, organized around Verdugo Road and Eagle Rock Boulevard. Predominantly hillside single-family homes; anchored by Forest Lawn Memorial Park (Glendale) to the north and the Los Angeles River corridor to the south.
Five categories moved in Glassell Park this March — four one-month below-trend signals and one sustained structural shift. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Other Larceny leads the signals: the trailing 12-month total is 53 incidents against a multi-year baseline of 107.04, and the year-over-year gap is −38.4%. Theft from Vehicle and Burglary also ran below trend — down 26.7% (66 vs. 90) and 12.8% (34 vs. 39) respectively over the past 12 months. Everything else, including Robbery and Aggravated Assault, held within their usual ranges.
Notable signals 4
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 53 incidents — about 50% below the 107 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 66 incidents — about 37% below the 105 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 47% below the 64 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 68 incidents — about 25% below the 91 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 53, down 38% from 86 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Glassell Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Tujunga
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Glassell Park's 53.
Open page →Atwater Village
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Glassell Park's 53.
Open page →Pacific Palisades
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Glassell Park's 53.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glassell Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.