Glassell Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Glassell Park is a Northeast LA neighborhood between the Glendale border and the Los Angeles River, organized around Verdugo Road and Eagle Rock Boulevard. Predominantly hillside single-family homes; anchored by Forest Lawn Memorial Park (Glendale) to the north and the Los Angeles River corridor to the south.
Four categories ran below trend in Glassell Park this April — all four drops, no spikes, no rare events. The structural picture is broadly downward across property crime, with theft, larceny, and burglary each registering below-trend signals in the same month.
Other larceny leads the top three signals: the current 12-month total of 52 incidents sits well below the prior-year count of 75, a 30.7% year-over-year decline. Theft from vehicle is down 28.6% (65 incidents vs. 91) and burglary is down 20.0% (32 vs. 40). Motor vehicle theft is the counterweight — up 16.4% over the prior 12 months — but it did not generate a signal this month, and every category that did move, moved down.
Notable signals 4
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 51% below the 106 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 65 incidents — about 38% below the 104 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 49% below the 63 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 68 incidents — about 25% below the 91 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Glassell Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Pacific Palisades
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Glassell Park's 52.
Open page →Beverlywood
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Glassell Park's 52.
Open page →Tujunga
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Glassell Park's 52.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Glassell Park has spiked theft from vehicle historically (5 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Theft from vehicle | 5 | 100% |
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Glassell Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glassell Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.