Elysian Valley Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Elysian Valley, locally known as Frogtown, is a narrow strip of homes between the Los Angeles River and the I-5 freeway, north of Downtown. A formerly industrial pocket now anchored by the LA River bike path, the Lewis MacAdams Riverfront Park, and the Riverside-Figueroa Bridge.
Two categories moved in Elysian Valley in March 2026 — both drops, both in property crime. The month's shape is narrow but directionally consistent: motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle are both running below trend, with no spikes, no rare events, and no sustained-shift signals in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft leads the two signals, with the current 12-month total at 23 incidents against a prior 12-month figure of 37 — down 37.8% year-over-year. Theft from vehicle follows the same direction, down 41.9% over the same window (18 incidents vs. 31). Every other tracked category — aggravated assault, burglary, other larceny, vandalism — finished the month within its normal range.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 38% below the 37 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 18 incidents — about 60% below the 45 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Elysian Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Fairfax
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Elysian Valley's 23.
Open page →Hollywood Hills West
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Elysian Valley's 23.
Open page →Toluca Lake
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Elysian Valley's 23.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Elysian Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.