Fairfax Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Fairfax is a Central LA neighborhood organized around Fairfax Avenue and the Original Farmers Market at Third and Fairfax. Anchored by The Grove shopping center, the historic CBS Television City studios, and the Pan Pacific Park.
Four categories moved in Fairfax this August: two ran below trend in a single-month drop, and two reflect sustained structural shifts playing out over the trailing 12 months. The overall shape is mixed, property crime pulling in opposite directions, with burglary and robbery running well below their recent pace while other larceny and motor vehicle theft have climbed sharply on a 12-month basis.
Burglary is the strongest signal this month, 59 incidents over the current 12 months against 83 in the prior year, down 28.9%. Robbery follows the same direction, 33 incidents vs. 39 a year ago, off 15.4%. On the other side, other larceny has risen 56.2% year-over-year (481 vs. 308), a sustained shift that now spans multiple months and represents the clearest structural change in the neighborhood's crime mix.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 50% below the 118 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 54% below the 72 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 481, up 56% from 308 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 115, down 34% from 173 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Fairfax compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Vermont Knolls
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Fairfax's 59.
Open page →Vermont-Slauson
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Fairfax's 59.
Open page →Pacific Palisades
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Fairfax's 59.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fairfax, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.