Fairfax Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Fairfax is a Central LA neighborhood organized around Fairfax Avenue and the Original Farmers Market at Third and Fairfax. Anchored by The Grove shopping center, the historic CBS Television City studios, and the Pan Pacific Park.
Eight categories moved in Fairfax this April — five ran below trend in the current month and three registered as sustained multi-year structural shifts. The shape is broadly and consistently downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Vandalism leads the signal list: the trailing 12 months came in at 49 incidents against a prior-year total of 122, down 59.8%. Motor vehicle theft and robbery both ran below trend as well — motor vehicle theft is down 51.0% year-over-year (24 vs. 49), and robbery is down 62.7% (19 vs. 51). The three sustained-shift signals indicate these are not single-month dips; the lower levels have held long enough to register as structural change across the neighborhood's tracked categories.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 49 incidents — about 62% below the 128 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 70% below the 79 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 75% below the 75 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 76 incidents — about 55% below the 169 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 68% below the 112 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 328, down 36% from 512 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 49, down 60% from 122 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 24, down 51% from 49 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Fairfax compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Mission Hills
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Fairfax's 49.
Open page →Pico-Robertson
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Fairfax's 49.
Open page →Gramercy Park
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Fairfax's 49.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Fairfax has spiked other larceny historically (11 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 11 | 100% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Fairfax's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fairfax, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.