Fairfax Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Fairfax is a Central LA neighborhood organized around Fairfax Avenue and the Original Farmers Market at Third and Fairfax. Anchored by The Grove shopping center, the historic CBS Television City studios, and the Pan Pacific Park.
Ten tracked signals surfaced in Fairfax this month — five one-month below-trend drops and five sustained structural shifts. The pattern runs uniformly downward across property crime and violent crime alike, with no spikes or rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-category move: 50 incidents over the current 12 months against a prior-year total of 121, down 58.7%. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both registered as below-trend drops as well — motor vehicle theft at 25 incidents vs. 59 prior-year (-57.6%), theft from vehicle at 76 vs. 112 (-32.1%). Robbery and aggravated assault round out the broader picture, down 65.5% and 45.2% respectively on a 12-month basis, underscoring that the declines in Fairfax are not limited to property crime.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 61% below the 128 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 69% below the 80 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 76 incidents — about 55% below the 171 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 73% below the 75 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 67% below the 114 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 325, down 40% from 537 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 50, down 59% from 121 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 20, down 66% from 58 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 25, down 58% from 59 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Fairfax compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fairfax, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.