Central-Alameda Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Central-Alameda is a South LA neighborhood running along the Alameda Corridor freight rail line between Florence and Slauson. Mixed industrial-and-residential along Alameda Street with single-family bungalows on the side streets; bordered by South Park to the north and Florence to the south.
Three categories moved in Central-Alameda this March — one single-month below-trend signal and two structural, multi-month shifts. The dominant pattern is broadly downward across violent and property crime, with the sustained-shift signals in robbery and other larceny pointing to a longer realignment rather than a quiet one-off month.
Burglary is the sharpest single-month move: 36 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 95.9, and down 34.5% year-over-year. Robbery has fallen 40.8% against the prior 12 months (58 vs. 98), and other larceny is down 46.5% (92 vs. 172) — both sustained shifts, not just March noise. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft were the only categories near flat; everything else ran below its prior-year level.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 62% below the 96 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 92, down 47% from 172 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 58, down 41% from 98 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Central-Alameda compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
South Park
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Central-Alameda's 36.
Open page →Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Central-Alameda's 36.
Open page →Fairfax
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Central-Alameda's 36.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Central-Alameda, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.