Harvey Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Harvey Park is a southwest Denver neighborhood organized around the namesake park between West Jewell and West Hampden Avenues. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential with a noted concentration of mid-century-modern Cliff May ranch homes.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Harvey Park: a below-trend month for aggravated assault. With only one category moving outside its normal range, the broader picture is stable across property and violent crime alike.
Aggravated assault is the standout, with 28 incidents in the current 12-month window against 32 in the prior year, down 12.5%. Robbery has fallen more sharply over the same stretch, 5 incidents against 12 a year ago, a 58.3% decline, though that category did not generate a signal this month on its own. On the other side, other larceny and vandalism are both running above their prior-year levels, up 42.9% and 28.3% respectively, categories worth watching if the upward trend continues into fall.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 22% below the 36 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harvey Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Windsor
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Harvey Park's 28.
Open page →Athmar Park
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Harvey Park's 28.
Open page →Barnum
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Harvey Park's 28.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harvey Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.