Hilltop Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Hilltop is an east-central residential neighborhood between Colorado Boulevard and Monaco Parkway, just north of Cherry Creek. Predominantly larger-lot single-family residential with mature tree canopy, anchored by Cranmer Park and the grade-school campus at George Washington High.
Three categories ran below trend in Hilltop this April, with no spikes or rare events in the mix. The month's shape is broadly downward across property crime — burglary, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft all posted below-trend signals, and a zero-event result rounded out a quiet four-signal month.
Burglary is the most pronounced move: 14 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 44.2, and down 63.2% from the prior 12-month total of 38. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft follow the same direction — down 26.8% and 32.6% year-over-year, respectively. Every other tracked category also sits below its prior-year level; nothing in the data this month ran against that pattern.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 68% below the 44 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 57% below the 95 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 29 incidents — about 66% below the 84 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hilltop compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hilltop, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.