Washington Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Washington Park is the dense south-Denver residential neighborhood surrounding the eponymous 165-acre park, one of the city's signature public spaces. Pre-war Denver Squares, bungalows, and a walkable grid line the park's perimeter, with the Old South Gaylord and South Pearl commercial strips on either side.
Washington Park had one signal in June 2026: a zero-event result for Homicide across the trailing 12 months. No other category crossed an anomaly threshold this month. The broader flag mix is as quiet as it gets — one zero-event signal, no spikes, no drops, no sustained shifts.
Across the seven tracked categories, the picture is mixed but stable. Theft from Vehicle is the clearest mover, up 36.7% year-over-year — 82 incidents in the current 12 months against 60 in the prior period. On the other side, Aggravated Assault is down 63.6% (4 vs. 11) and Burglary is down 32.0% (34 vs. 50). Everything else — Other Larceny, Vandalism, Motor Vehicle Theft — moved within a narrow range against the prior year.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Washington Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Bear Valley
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Washington Park's 0.
Open page →CBD
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Washington Park's 0.
Open page →Capitol Hill
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Washington Park's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Washington Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.