Capitol Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Capitol Hill is the dense urban neighborhood immediately east of the State Capitol building, organized around Colfax Avenue, East 13th Avenue, and the historic mansions along Grant and Pennsylvania streets. A mix of pre-war apartment buildings, converted Victorians, and small-lot row homes makes it one of Denver's most populated neighborhoods per acre.
Capitol Hill registered one structural signal in September 2026: a sustained shift in theft from vehicle, not a single noisy month but a multi-month pattern running above the prior-year baseline. Every other tracked category was within its normal range.
Theft from vehicle is up 27.0% over the trailing 12 months, 423 incidents against 333 in the year before. That gap reflects a longer-term structural move, not a one-month anomaly. Motor vehicle theft and vandalism moved in the opposite direction, down 15.9% and 10.9% respectively over the same window, and robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary all held within a few percentage points of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 423, up 27% from 333 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Capitol Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
DIA
399 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 below Capitol Hill's 423.
Open page →Central Park
355 incidents over the past 12 months — 68 below Capitol Hill's 423.
Open page →Gateway - Green Valley Ranch
316 incidents over the past 12 months — 107 below Capitol Hill's 423.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Capitol Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.