Virginia Village Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Virginia Village is a southeast Denver neighborhood between East Mississippi Avenue and East Florida Avenue, west of Interstate 25. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential with apartment-building corridors along South Holly and South Monaco.
Four categories moved in Virginia Village this April — two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is downward, concentrated in property crime: burglary and motor vehicle theft are the clearest movers, with burglary showing up in both the drop and sustained-shift columns.
Burglary is the most consequential signal. The trailing 12-month total stands at 28 incidents against a prior-year count of 60 — down 53.3% — well below its multi-year baseline. Motor vehicle theft shows a parallel move: 55 incidents in the current 12 months against 118 the year before, a 53.4% reduction. Vandalism and other larceny are also running lower year-over-year (down 23.7% and 17.6%, respectively), while robbery and theft from vehicle were within a few percentage points of prior-year levels and did not register signals this month.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 65% below the 80 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 70% below the 184 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 53% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 53% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Virginia Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Barnum West
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Virginia Village's 28.
Open page →Bear Valley
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Virginia Village's 28.
Open page →Harvey Park
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Virginia Village's 28.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Virginia Villagedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Virginia Village's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Virginia Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.