Virginia Village Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Virginia Village is a southeast Denver neighborhood between East Mississippi Avenue and East Florida Avenue, west of Interstate 25. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential with apartment-building corridors along South Holly and South Monaco.
Four categories moved in Virginia Village in June 2026 — three below-trend drops and one sustained structural shift. The dominant shape is a broad property-crime decline: motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and burglary all ran below trend this month, while the sustained-shift signal points to a longer-term move rather than a single quiet month.
Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest signal, with 55 incidents in the trailing 12 months against a prior-year total of 108 — down 49.1% year-over-year. Vandalism fell 33.0% (67 vs. 100) and burglary dropped 23.5% (39 vs. 51). Robbery is the one category moving the other direction, up 42.9% over the prior 12 months, though at 10 incidents the absolute volume is low.
Notable signals 3
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 70% below the 182 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 37% below the 106 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 50% below the 78 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 49% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Virginia Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Cheesman Park
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Virginia Village's 55.
Open page →Ruby Hill
54 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Virginia Village's 55.
Open page →Harvey Park South
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Virginia Village's 55.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Virginia Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.