Villa Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Villa Park is a west-Denver neighborhood between West Colfax and West 6th Avenue, organized around Villa Park itself. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential bordered by Lakewood at Sheridan Boulevard.
Six categories moved in Villa Park this April — three one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Other larceny, aggravated assault, and theft from vehicle all ran below trend this month. Burglary and theft from vehicle tell the clearest structural story: burglary is down 54.2% over the trailing 12 months (38 incidents vs. 83 the prior year), and theft from vehicle is down 41.3% (54 vs. 92). Other larceny's 12-month total of 38 sits below its baseline mean of 63.22, extending a pattern that predates April. Robbery and vandalism are the exceptions — up 30.0% and 15.7% respectively over the same window — but neither produced a one-month signal this briefing.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 38 incidents — about 40% below the 63 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 42% below the 45 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 54 incidents — about 50% below the 108 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 38, down 54% from 83 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 54, down 41% from 92 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 69, down 36% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Villa Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Belcaro
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Villa Park's 38.
Open page →Kennedy
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Villa Park's 38.
Open page →Chaffee Park
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Villa Park's 38.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Villa Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Villa Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Villa Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.