Villa Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Villa Park is a west-Denver neighborhood between West Colfax and West 6th Avenue, organized around Villa Park itself. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential bordered by Lakewood at Sheridan Boulevard.
Five categories moved in Villa Park this September, three running below trend in the current month and two registering as structural, multi-month sustained shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Aggravated assault is the strongest signal: the trailing 12 months show 20 incidents against 35 in the prior year, a 42.9% reduction. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle reinforce the same direction, down 42.1% (55 vs. 95) and 38.0% (49 vs. 79) respectively over the same 12-month window. Burglary follows at 30.5% below the prior year. The two sustained-shift signals indicate these are not single-month moves but patterns that have held across multiple months, while vandalism and other larceny remain within a narrower range.
Notable signals 3
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 53% below the 43 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 59% below the 133 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 49 incidents — about 53% below the 105 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 42% from 95 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 49, down 38% from 79 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Villa Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Cheesman Park
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Villa Park's 20.
Open page →Harvey Park South
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Villa Park's 20.
Open page →Highland
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Villa Park's 20.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Villa Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.