DROP · MOTOR VEHICLE THEFTJUNE 2026 BRIEFINGDENVER · 7.3K residents

Platt Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver

Platt Park is a south-Denver neighborhood organized around the namesake park and the South Pearl Street commercial strip between Washington Park and the Old South Pearl shopping district. Predominantly bungalow-and-Denver-Square residential streets anchored by the popular South Pearl farmers market and restaurant row.

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT · 24-MO COUNT06 2026 · 2
071412-mo avg: 2.1
PLATT PARKCITYWIDE TREND (RESCALED)-32% 12MO YOY
+100%MoM
-42%12mo YoY
25last 12mo
2this month
01 · TL;DR

Platt Park registered one signal in June 2026 — a below-trend drop in motor vehicle theft. The rest of the tracked categories came in within normal range for the month.

Motor vehicle theft is down 41.9% against the prior 12 months, 25 incidents vs. 43 in the year before — well below the multi-year baseline of 68.4 annual incidents. Burglary and other larceny are also running lower over the same 12-month window, down 32.8% and 29.2% respectively, while theft from vehicle moved the other direction, up 19.4% against the prior year. The structural lean across most property categories is downward; theft from vehicle is the exception to watch.

1 drop
02 · Notable signals

Notable signals 1

DROP · MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

Motor Vehicle Theft

The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 63% below the 68 average from prior years.

03 · By category

All categories, last 24 months

Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.

Homicidebelow threshold
2024-072026-06
Robberybelow threshold
2024-072026-06
Aggravated Assaultbelow threshold
2024-072026-06
Burglary-33%
2024-072026-06
Theft from Vehicle+19%
2024-072026-06
Other Larceny-29%
2024-072026-06
Motor Vehicle Theft-42%
2024-072026-06
Vandalism-21%
2024-072026-06
Arsonbelow threshold
2024-072026-06
05 · Forecast

What next month likely looks like

Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.

Aggravated Assault

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Arson

NO FORECAST

Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.

Burglary

JULY 2026
Most likely 5 next month — likely between 0 and 10.
+28% vs 12-month average (≈3.8)

Homicide

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Motor Vehicle Theft

JULY 2026
Most likely 8 next month — likely between 3 and 11.
+260% vs 12-month average (≈2.1)

Other Larceny

JULY 2026
Most likely 2 next month — likely between 0 and 7.
42% vs 12-month average (≈3.8)

Robbery

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Theft from Vehicle

JULY 2026
Most likely 5 next month — likely between 0 and 11.
13% vs 12-month average (≈6.2)

Vandalism

JULY 2026
Most likely 4 next month — likely between 1 and 7.
+39% vs 12-month average (≈2.9)
06 · Context & comps

How Platt Park compares

Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”

07 · Patterns

Recurring local terms (last 12 months)

Top terms in incident descriptions for Platt Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.

itemsforceresidencepartsbicyclebldgordersimplebusinessdruginjurethreatscourttrespassingfraudaggravatedpolicesellshoplifttelephonecrimesfalseharassmentliquormails
When does it happen?

Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality

Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.

HOUR OF DAY · ALL CATEGORIES
06713412am6am12pm6pm11pm

Hour 0 is mildly inflated by reports without a known time defaulting to midnight — see methodology.

DAY OF WEEK · ALL CATEGORIES
0165330MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
MONTH OF YEAR · ALL CATEGORIES
0103207JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
08 · Methodology

How we built this page

Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page

Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.

Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.