DROP · MOTOR VEHICLE THEFTAUGUST 2026 BRIEFINGDENVER · 7.3K residents

Platt Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver

Platt Park is a south-Denver neighborhood organized around the namesake park and the South Pearl Street commercial strip between Washington Park and the Old South Pearl shopping district. Predominantly bungalow-and-Denver-Square residential streets anchored by the popular South Pearl farmers market and restaurant row.

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT · 24-MO COUNT08 2026 · 4
04812-mo avg: 2.0
PLATT PARKCITYWIDE TREND (RESCALED)-32% 12MO YOY
+100%MoM
-33%12mo YoY
24last 12mo
4this month
01 · TL;DR

August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Platt Park: motor vehicle theft running below its multi-year trend. Every other tracked category came in within its normal range, making this a structurally quiet month with one clear mover.

Motor vehicle theft is down 33.3% over the trailing 12 months, 24 incidents against 36 in the prior year. Burglary shows the same 33.3% year-over-year decline, 44 incidents against 66, though that shift did not cross the anomaly threshold this month. Vandalism, other larceny, and theft from vehicle all ran modestly below prior-year levels as well, each within a few percentage points, consistent with a broad but undramatic softening across property crime in the neighborhood.

1 drop
02 · Notable signals

Notable signals 1

DROP · MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

Motor Vehicle Theft

The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 64% below the 67 average from prior years.

03 · By category

All categories, last 24 months

Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.

Homicidebelow threshold
2024-092026-08
Robberybelow threshold
2024-092026-08
Aggravated Assaultbelow threshold
2024-092026-08
Burglary-33%
2024-092026-08
Theft from Vehicle-3%
2024-092026-08
Other Larceny-7%
2024-092026-08
Motor Vehicle Theft-33%
2024-092026-08
Vandalism-14%
2024-092026-08
Arsonbelow threshold
2024-092026-08
05 · Forecast

What next month likely looks like

Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.

Aggravated Assault

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Arson

NO FORECAST

Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.

Burglary

SEPTEMBER 2026
Most likely 4 next month — likely between 0 and 8.
4% vs 12-month average (≈3.7)

Homicide

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Motor Vehicle Theft

SEPTEMBER 2026
Most likely 0 next month — likely between 0 and 4.
100% vs 12-month average (≈2.0)

Other Larceny

SEPTEMBER 2026
Most likely 3 next month — likely between 0 and 8.
28% vs 12-month average (≈4.5)

Robbery

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Theft from Vehicle

SEPTEMBER 2026
Most likely 4 next month — likely between 0 and 10.
21% vs 12-month average (≈5.4)

Vandalism

SEPTEMBER 2026
Most likely 3 next month — likely between 0 and 6.
3% vs 12-month average (≈3.0)
06 · Context & comps

How Platt Park compares

Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”

07 · Patterns

Recurring local terms (last 12 months)

Top terms in incident descriptions for Platt Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.

itemsforceresidencebldgpartsbicyclebusinessdruginjureorderthreatssimplecourtaggravatedfraudshoplifttrespassingpolicestreettelephonechecksforgeryharassmentmailsparaphernalia
When does it happen?

Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality

Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.

HOUR OF DAY · ALL CATEGORIES
06913812am6am12pm6pm11pm

Hour 0 is mildly inflated by reports without a known time defaulting to midnight — see methodology.

DAY OF WEEK · ALL CATEGORIES
0167334MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
MONTH OF YEAR · ALL CATEGORIES
0117234JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
08 · Methodology

How we built this page

Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page

Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.

Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.