Kennedy Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Kennedy is a southeast Denver neighborhood between Hampden Avenue and Yale Avenue, east of Interstate 25. A mix of mid-century single-family residential and apartment-building corridors, named for the Kennedy Golf Course on its southern edge.
Four categories moved in Kennedy this September, a mixed picture with no single direction dominating. Aggravated assault registered a spike, burglary ran below trend, a sustained shift rounded out the property crime picture, and a homicide streak break was the month's most structurally unusual signal, a category that had been absent long enough to register as a reappearance.
Aggravated assault is the sharpest concern: 37 incidents over the current 12 months against 21 in the prior year, up 76.2%, and well above the neighborhood's recent historical range of 23. Motor vehicle theft moved the other direction at scale, down 58.5% year over year (22 incidents vs. 53), and theft from vehicle fell 29.4%. Burglary's single-month below-trend signal fits that broader property crime softening, even as vandalism climbed 22.9% on the 12-month comparison.
Notable signals 3
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 61% above the 23 average from prior years.
Homicide
First incident since October 2023 — a 3-year gap ended this month.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 11 incidents — about 52% below the 23 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 22, down 59% from 53 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Kennedy compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Baker
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Kennedy's 37.
Open page →Washington Virginia Vale
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Kennedy's 37.
Open page →Mar Lee
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Kennedy's 37.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Kennedydoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Kennedy's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 1 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Kennedy, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.