Chaffee Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Chaffee Park is a small northwest neighborhood between Federal Boulevard and Pecos Street, just south of Interstate 70. Predominantly mid-century residential with the Regis University campus immediately to the west across Federal.
Four categories moved in Chaffee Park this September, a mix of two below-trend drops, one spike, and one sustained structural shift. The overall lean is downward across property crime, with motor vehicle theft and vandalism both running below their recent pace, but other larceny cuts against that pattern with an above-trend signal.
Vandalism is down 56.2% over the trailing 12 months, 7 incidents against 16 in the prior year. Motor vehicle theft tells a similar story, falling 54.0% year-over-year, 23 incidents against 50. Other larceny is the outlier: 38 incidents in the current 12 months against 34 in the prior year, an 11.8% rise, and the strongest single signal this briefing.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 38 incidents — about 36% above the 28 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 7 incidents — about 78% below the 32 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 60% below the 58 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 23, down 54% from 50 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Chaffee Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Belcaro
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Chaffee Park's 38.
Open page →Fort Logan
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Chaffee Park's 38.
Open page →North Park Hill
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Chaffee Park's 38.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Chaffee Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Chaffee Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Chaffee Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.