North Park Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
North Park Hill is the northern third of the broader Park Hill area, between East 38th Avenue and East 26th Avenue along Colorado Boulevard. Predominantly early-to-mid-20th-century single-family residential with a tree-lined grid of bungalows and four-square homes.
North Park Hill had a low-signal month in August 2026. One tracked category registered a notable move, motor vehicle theft running below trend, plus a zero-event signal in a second category. The overall picture is broadly downward across multiple crime types, not a single dramatic shift but a continuation of a structural pattern.
The strongest signal is motor vehicle theft, down 36.0% over the trailing 12 months, 32 incidents against 50 in the prior year. Burglary is the sharpest year-over-year mover in the neighborhood, down 54.8% (19 incidents vs. 42). Vandalism is the one category moving in the other direction, up 15.0% against the prior 12 months, 46 incidents vs. 40. Every other tracked category, aggravated assault, other larceny, and theft from vehicle, is also below its prior-year level, leaving vandalism as the sole outlier in an otherwise declining picture.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 55% below the 71 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How North Park Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Barnum
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below North Park Hill's 32.
Open page →Berkeley
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below North Park Hill's 32.
Open page →Cherry Creek
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below North Park Hill's 32.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for North Park Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.