Barnum Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Barnum is a west-Denver neighborhood centered on Federal Boulevard and West Colfax-area side streets, named for showman P.T. Barnum, who once owned land here. Predominantly residential mid-century single-family, with Barnum Park and a long commercial spine along Federal.
September 2026 produced a single signal in Barnum: motor vehicle theft running below its multi-year trend. Only one category crossed the anomaly threshold this month, and the rest of the tracked categories stayed within their normal ranges.
Motor vehicle theft sits at 30 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down from 41 in the prior year, a 26.8% decline. Elsewhere, other larceny fell 25.0% year-over-year (36 vs. 48) and vandalism is down 14.0% (43 vs. 50), both within range but pointing the same direction. Theft from vehicle is the one counter-trend: 36 incidents vs. 25 in the prior 12 months, a 44.0% rise, though it did not cross the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 51% below the 62 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Barnum compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Berkeley
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Barnum's 30.
Open page →Cherry Creek
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Barnum's 30.
Open page →Hilltop
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Barnum's 30.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Barnum, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.