Fort Logan Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Fort Logan is a far-southwest neighborhood organized around the historic former Army installation that's now Fort Logan National Cemetery. Predominantly mid-to-late-20th-century residential single-family with the cemetery and adjoining open space as its defining geographic feature.
Two signals surfaced in Fort Logan this September, both pointing the same direction: theft from vehicle is down, and the drop looks structural. One signal is a single-month below-trend reading; the other is a sustained shift, meaning the decline has been building across the trailing 12 months, not just this period. Everything else tracked across the neighborhood sat within normal range.
Theft from vehicle accounts for the bulk of the story. The trailing 12-month total stands at 27 incidents, against 51 in the prior year, a 47.1% reduction. That sustained-shift signal confirms this is not a single quiet month but a multi-year change in volume. Motor vehicle theft and vandalism are also running below their prior-year levels, down 18.8% and 18.6% respectively, while other larceny is the one counter-trend, up 68.2% on 37 incidents against 22 the year before.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 27 incidents — about 63% below the 72 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 27, down 47% from 51 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Fort Logan compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Skyland
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Fort Logan's 27.
Open page →Country Club
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Fort Logan's 27.
Open page →Kennedy
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Fort Logan's 27.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fort Logan, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.