City Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
City Park is the neighborhood inside Denver's signature 320-acre urban park, which contains the Denver Zoo and Denver Museum of Nature & Science. The neighborhood designation includes the park itself and the immediately adjacent residential blocks; resident population is concentrated in the apartment buildings along East 17th Avenue and Colorado Boulevard.
Five categories moved in City Park this September, a mix of one spike, two single-month drops, and two sustained structural shifts. The strongest signal is aggravated assault, up against a multi-year baseline that had held well below current levels. The rest of the picture runs in the opposite direction: theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft both came in below trend, and vandalism and other larceny show the kind of multi-month structural decline that goes beyond a quiet stretch.
Aggravated assault reached 26 incidents over the trailing 12 months, against 20 in the prior 12-month period, a 30.0% rise year-over-year and roughly double its longer-run pace. Theft from vehicle dropped to 42 from 70, down 40.0%, and motor vehicle theft fell to 21 from 36, down 41.7%. Vandalism tells the sharpest sustained story: 42 incidents in the current 12 months against 94 in the prior year, a 55.3% reduction that reflects a structural shift, not a single slow month. Everything else, robbery and burglary, stayed within a few percentage points of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 3
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 91% above the 14 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 42 incidents — about 51% below the 85 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 61% below the 54 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 42, down 55% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 42, down 40% from 70 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How City Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Athmar Park
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above City Park's 26.
Open page →Speer
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below City Park's 26.
Open page →Valverde
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below City Park's 26.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
City Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows City Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 8 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for City Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.