City Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
City Park is the neighborhood inside Denver's signature 320-acre urban park, which contains the Denver Zoo and Denver Museum of Nature & Science. The neighborhood designation includes the park itself and the immediately adjacent residential blocks; resident population is concentrated in the apartment buildings along East 17th Avenue and Colorado Boulevard.
Three categories moved in City Park this August, one in each direction plus one structural shift. Aggravated assault registered a one-month spike, theft from vehicle ran below trend, and vandalism has settled into a multi-month sustained decline. The signals point in different directions, with no single story dominating the month.
Vandalism is the clearest structural move: 45 incidents over the current 12 months against 94 in the prior year, down 52.1%. Aggravated assault is the counter-signal, 24 incidents over the current 12 months against 18 in the prior year, up 33.3%, making it the sharpest one-month move this briefing. Theft from vehicle also ran below its recent pace, at 46 incidents against 65 in the prior year, a 29.2% drop. Everything else in City Park held within normal range.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 79% above the 13 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 46 incidents — about 46% below the 85 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 45, down 52% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How City Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Highland
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below City Park's 24.
Open page →Speer
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below City Park's 24.
Open page →Virginia Village
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below City Park's 24.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
City Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows City Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 8 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for City Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.