Gateway - Green Valley Ranch Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Gateway - Green Valley Ranch is a sprawling far-northeast neighborhood east of Central Park and south of DIA, including both the older Gateway sections and the master-planned Green Valley Ranch development. Predominantly newer single-family suburban residential at densities much lower than Denver's older core.
Five categories moved in Gateway - Green Valley Ranch this September, a mixed picture: one spike, two single-month below-trend signals, and two sustained structural shifts. The overall pattern splits sharply between crime types rising on a 12-month basis and a handful of categories running meaningfully below prior-year levels.
Other larceny is the month's sharpest signal, with 230 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 212 the year before, an 8.5% rise, and this month registering as a one-month spike above that already-elevated trend. Robbery moved the other direction, down 58.2% year-over-year, 23 incidents versus 55, one of the larger drops in the category across Denver. Motor vehicle theft also ran below trend, off 24.2% on a 12-month basis, 254 versus 335. Against those declines, vandalism and theft from vehicle are both up sharply on a structural basis, 35.2% and 22.0% respectively, suggesting those gains are not single-month noise.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 230 incidents — about 27% above the 181 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 48% below the 45 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 254 incidents — about 56% below the 579 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 23, down 58% from 55 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 284, up 35% from 210 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Gateway - Green Valley Ranch compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Baker
235 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 230.
Open page →North Capitol Hill
235 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 230.
Open page →Lincoln Park
218 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 230.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Gateway - Green Valley Ranchdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Gateway - Green Valley Ranch, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.