Gateway - Green Valley Ranch Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Gateway - Green Valley Ranch is a sprawling far-northeast neighborhood east of Central Park and south of DIA, including both the older Gateway sections and the master-planned Green Valley Ranch development. Predominantly newer single-family suburban residential at densities much lower than Denver's older core.
Gateway - Green Valley Ranch had four tracked signals in April 2026 — one below-trend drop and three sustained structural shifts. The shape is mixed: property crime categories are pulling in opposite directions, with vehicle-related theft rising while motor vehicle theft and robbery are falling.
Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest move: 273 incidents over the current 12 months against a multi-year baseline mean of 581.29 — a structural gap that has been widening, not just a one-month dip. Robbery has also shifted downward over time, falling 47.2% year-over-year (28 incidents vs. 53 in the prior 12 months). Running the other way, theft from vehicle is up 29.5% against the prior year — 312 incidents vs. 241 — and vandalism is up 30.5% over the same window, making the property-crime picture uneven rather than broadly improving.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 273 incidents — about 53% below the 581 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 312, up 30% from 241 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Vandalism is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 257, up 31% from 197 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 47% from 53 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Gateway - Green Valley Ranch compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Five Points
283 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 273.
Open page →Central Park
225 incidents over the past 12 months — 48 below Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 273.
Open page →DIA
330 incidents over the past 12 months — 57 above Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 273.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Gateway - Green Valley Ranchdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Gateway - Green Valley Ranch, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.