Gateway - Green Valley Ranch Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Gateway - Green Valley Ranch is a sprawling far-northeast neighborhood east of Central Park and south of DIA, including both the older Gateway sections and the master-planned Green Valley Ranch development. Predominantly newer single-family suburban residential at densities much lower than Denver's older core.
Five signals across Gateway - Green Valley Ranch in June 2026 — one spike, one below-trend drop, and three sustained shifts pointing to structural changes rather than a single noisy month. The dominant shape is mixed: property crime is moving in two directions at once, with theft categories rising on a 12-month basis while vehicle-related theft and robbery are down substantially.
Other larceny spiked this month against its multi-year baseline, with 220 incidents in the current 12 months against 209 in the prior year — a 5.3% rise that the spike signal indicates is accelerating in the near term. Motor vehicle theft ran below trend this period, consistent with a broader 12-month decline of 27.8% (270 incidents vs. 374 prior year). Robbery's sustained-shift signal reflects a sharper structural move: 28 incidents in the current 12 months against 55 in the year before, a 49.1% decrease that has held long enough to register as a multi-month pattern rather than a one-month dip.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 220 incidents — about 22% above the 180 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 270 incidents — about 55% below the 597 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 270, down 28% from 374 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 49% from 55 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 325, up 26% from 258 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Gateway - Green Valley Ranch compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
North Capitol Hill
231 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 220.
Open page →Mar Lee
208 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 220.
Open page →Cory - Merrill
205 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's 220.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Gateway - Green Valley Ranchdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Gateway - Green Valley Ranch's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Gateway - Green Valley Ranch, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.