Twining Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Twining is a small Southeast residential neighborhood east of the Anacostia, with rowhouses and detached homes set near Fort Davis Park and Fort Dupont Park. The cluster covers Fairlawn, Randle Highlands, and Penn Branch as well, a contiguous residential band along the eastern edge of the park system.
Two categories moved in Twining this September, one a single-month below-trend signal and one a structural multi-year shift. The shape of the month is broadly downward on vehicle-related crime, with the longer motor vehicle theft decline the more durable story.
Theft from vehicle registered a one-month below-trend signal against a 12-month total of 78 incidents, down 28.4% from 109 in the prior year. Motor vehicle theft tells a deeper story: a sustained structural shift, with the trailing 12 months at 89 incidents against 189 in the year before, a 52.9% reduction that points to a multi-year change rather than a single quiet month. Everything else in Twining, including aggravated assault at 61 incidents and burglary at 31, moved without crossing the anomaly threshold this period.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 78 incidents — about 64% below the 219 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 89, down 53% from 189 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Twining compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Adams Morgan
79 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Twining's 78.
Open page →Deanwood
72 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Twining's 78.
Open page →Woodridge
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Twining's 78.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Twining, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.