Southwest Waterfront Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Southwest Waterfront covers the mile of redeveloped Wharf-anchored riverfront south of the National Mall, including Fort McNair at the Potomac and Anacostia confluence and Buzzard Point on the western edge. The cluster blends the Wharf's restaurant and concert district with mid-century cooperative housing and the federal Southwest Employment Area along Independence Avenue.
Four signals shaped June 2026 in Southwest Waterfront — one below-trend single-month signal and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant pattern is a multi-year reshaping of property crime: theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are both down sharply over 12 months, while other larceny has moved in the opposite direction.
Theft from vehicle is the clearest structural story: 59 incidents over the current 12 months against 145 in the prior year, a 59.3% decline and well below the multi-year baseline of 171.78. Motor vehicle theft follows a similar arc, down 39.3% year-over-year (85 vs. 140). Other larceny is the counterweight — up 30.5% to 278 incidents, the largest raw volume of any tracked category and a sustained shift, not a one-month anomaly. Aggravated assault at 52.6% above the prior year (29 vs. 19) is a smaller absolute number but a notable directional move worth watching.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 66% below the 172 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 59, down 59% from 145 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 39% from 140 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 278, up 31% from 213 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Southwest Waterfront compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Cleveland Park
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Southwest Waterfront's 59.
Open page →North Cleveland Park
54 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Southwest Waterfront's 59.
Open page →Spring Valley
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Southwest Waterfront's 59.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Southwest Waterfront, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.