Fairfax Village Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Fairfax Village is the Southeast garden-apartment neighborhood organized around its namesake townhouse complex, with Naylor Road as its commercial spine. The cluster covers Naylor Gardens, Hillcrest, and Summit Park, a band of predominantly residential streets stepping down from the Suitland Parkway.
Four categories moved in Fairfax Village this August, a mix of one below-trend signal and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant story is a broad reconfiguration of property crime: theft from vehicle is falling on both a monthly and multi-year basis, while other larceny has moved in the opposite direction over the same period. Robbery and motor vehicle theft have also retreated sharply in the trailing 12 months, though neither generated a signal this month.
Theft from vehicle sits at 28 incidents over the current 12 months against 59 in the prior year, down 52.5%, a sustained shift large enough to register as structural. Other larceny moved the other way, 149 incidents vs 98 in the prior year, up 52.0%, suggesting some substitution between categories rather than a clean overall decline. Robbery's 12-month total fell to 6 from 26, a 76.9% reduction, while aggravated assault rose to 13 from 6, up 116.7%, though its absolute counts remain low enough that the percentage overstates the practical magnitude.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 74% below the 108 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 37, down 55% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 53% from 59 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 149, up 52% from 98 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Fairfax Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Barry Farm
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Fairfax Village's 28.
Open page →Mayfair
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Fairfax Village's 28.
Open page →Fort Stanton
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Fairfax Village's 28.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fairfax Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.