Edgewood Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Edgewood is the Northeast neighborhood between Rhode Island Avenue and the Metropolitan Branch Trail, with mid-century apartment complexes and a Rhode Island Avenue Metro station that anchors its commercial life. The cluster includes Bloomingdale and Truxton Circle to the south plus Eckington along the Red Line tracks, a stretch that has shifted from industrial to mixed residential over the past two decades.
Five categories moved in Edgewood this June — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained multi-month structural shifts. The direction is consistently downward across property crime and robbery, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle and burglary both ran below trend this month; over the trailing 12 months, theft from vehicle sits at 194 incidents against a baseline of 366.9 — down 45.5% from the prior year's 356. Robbery tells a similar structural story: 65 incidents in the current 12 months vs. 128 in the year before, a 49.2% reduction that registers as a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Motor vehicle theft dropped 52.7% year-over-year as well, from 283 to 134, reinforcing the breadth of the property crime decline across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 194 incidents — about 47% below the 367 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 49% below the 67 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 134, down 53% from 283 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 194, down 46% from 356 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 65, down 49% from 128 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Edgewood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Takoma
191 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Edgewood's 194.
Open page →Petworth
200 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Edgewood's 194.
Open page →Capitol Hill
177 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below Edgewood's 194.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Edgewood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.