Edgewood Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Edgewood is the Northeast neighborhood between Rhode Island Avenue and the Metropolitan Branch Trail, with mid-century apartment complexes and a Rhode Island Avenue Metro station that anchors its commercial life. The cluster includes Bloomingdale and Truxton Circle to the south plus Eckington along the Red Line tracks, a stretch that has shifted from industrial to mixed residential over the past two decades.
Seven categories moved in Edgewood this April — three one-month below-trend signals and four sustained structural shifts. The dominant pattern is a broad, multi-year pullback across property and violent crime, not a single outlier month.
Theft from vehicle leads the top signals: the current 12-month total is 195, down from 372 the year before — a 47.6% decline against the prior period. Burglary and aggravated assault also ran below trend this month, with 12-month totals of 30 (vs. 69 prior) and 26 (vs. 44 prior), respectively. Four of the seven signals are sustained shifts, meaning the declines in categories like robbery and motor vehicle theft reflect structural moves across two full years, not one quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 195 incidents — about 47% below the 367 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 55% below the 67 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 61% below the 66 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 195, down 48% from 372 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 156, down 49% from 304 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 30, down 57% from 69 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 77, down 42% from 133 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Edgewood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Capitol Hill
195 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Edgewood's 195.
Open page →Dupont Circle
191 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Edgewood's 195.
Open page →Georgetown
180 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Edgewood's 195.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Edgewood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.