Barry Farm Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Barry Farm is the Southeast neighborhood at the Anacostia River's southern bend, founded in 1867 as one of the first communities for Black residents purchasing their own land after the Civil War. The cluster includes Sheridan and Buena Vista, residential pockets that step up from the river toward the St. Elizabeths campus.
April 2026 produced a single signal in Barry Farm: aggravated assault running below its multi-year trend. With just one tracked signal across all categories and no spikes, rare events, or sustained structural shifts, the month's overall shape is narrow — one category moved, the rest held within range.
The aggravated assault drop is consistent with a broader 12-month decline: 22 incidents in the current year against 34 in the prior year, a 35.3% reduction. Robbery and motor vehicle theft are also down significantly over the same window — 30.8% and 32.8% respectively — suggesting the downward pressure on violent and property crime in Barry Farm predates this month. Burglary is the one flat line, unchanged at 14 incidents year over year.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 48% below the 43 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Barry Farm compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Capitol Hill
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Barry Farm's 22.
Open page →Shaw
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Barry Farm's 22.
Open page →Mayfair
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Barry Farm's 22.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Barry Farm, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.