East Walnut Hills Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
East Walnut Hills is an inner-east hillside neighborhood organized around Madison Road and Woodburn Avenue. Mostly historic single-family and apartment buildings, with a small but growing commercial node at the Madison Road / Woodburn intersection.
East Walnut Hills had a structurally quiet June 2026 — one sustained shift and one zero-event signal, with most tracked categories either holding near baseline or running below prior-year levels. The single meaningful move is a structural one: theft from vehicle has shifted upward as a multi-month pattern, not a single noisy month.
Theft from vehicle is up 100.0% over the trailing 12 months — 58 incidents against 29 in the prior year — the clearest break from prior patterns in the neighborhood. Against that, burglary has fallen sharply, down 71.4% year-over-year (6 incidents vs. 21), and motor vehicle theft is down 22.2%. Other larceny is essentially flat at -9.5%. The structural rise in theft from vehicle stands out precisely because everything else has moved in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 58, up 100% from 29 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How East Walnut Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Hyde Park
59 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above East Walnut Hills's 58.
Open page →Bond Hill
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below East Walnut Hills's 58.
Open page →West End
63 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above East Walnut Hills's 58.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for East Walnut Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.