East Walnut Hills Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
East Walnut Hills is an inner-east hillside neighborhood organized around Madison Road and Woodburn Avenue. Mostly historic single-family and apartment buildings, with a small but growing commercial node at the Madison Road / Woodburn intersection.
East Walnut Hills had a narrow month — two tracked signals across the full category set, one a one-month drop and one a structural shift in opposite directions. The standout move is a below-trend reading in other larceny, with theft from vehicle showing a sustained multi-month increase running against that grain.
Other larceny is at 14 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down from 24 in the prior year — a 41.7% year-over-year decline — and the current count sits well below the multi-year baseline of 32.57. Theft from vehicle tells a different story: 51 incidents in the current 12 months against 27 in the year prior, an 88.9% increase that qualifies as a sustained structural shift rather than a single noisy month. Burglary also dropped sharply over the same window — 8 incidents vs. 19, down 57.9% — though it did not register as a top signal this month.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 57% below the 33 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 51, up 89% from 27 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How East Walnut Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
North Avondale
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below East Walnut Hills's 14.
Open page →East End
16 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above East Walnut Hills's 14.
Open page →North Fairmount
11 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below East Walnut Hills's 14.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for East Walnut Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.