College Hill Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
College Hill is a north Cincinnati neighborhood along Hamilton Avenue and North Bend Road, named for the 19th-century Farmers' College that once stood there. Mostly single-family homes with a walkable commercial strip along Hamilton Avenue at North Bend.
August 2026 produced a single structural signal in College Hill: motor vehicle theft has shifted down over the trailing 12 months, a sustained multi-month move rather than a one-month dip. Every other tracked category landed within normal range, making this one of the quieter briefings in recent periods.
Motor vehicle theft is down 51.8% against the prior 12 months, 54 incidents vs 112 in the year before, the sharpest year-over-year move in any category this briefing. Violent crime categories are also running lower: robbery fell 40.0% (12 vs 20) and aggravated assault fell 28.0% (18 vs 25) over the same window. The counter-trend is in property larceny, where theft from vehicle is up 22.1% (83 vs 68) and other larceny up 21.4% (102 vs 84), though neither crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 54, down 52% from 112 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How College Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Clifton
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below College Hill's 54.
Open page →Evanston
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below College Hill's 54.
Open page →Mt. Airy
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below College Hill's 54.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for College Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.