South Fairmount Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
South Fairmount is a West Side hillside neighborhood along Queen City Avenue and Westwood Avenue, between Lower Price Hill and East Westwood. A mix of historic single-family homes and the Queen City Avenue corridor running along the lower hillside.
South Fairmount registered one tracked signal in August 2026: a sustained structural shift in other larceny, not a single noisy month but a multi-year realignment upward. Every other tracked category landed within its normal range.
Other larceny is the signal that matters here. At 55 incidents in the current 12-month window against 28 in the prior 12 months, the category is up 96.4% year over year, nearly double the pace of the previous period. Robbery moved the other direction, 4 incidents in the current 12 months against 7 in the prior year, down 42.9%, but that shift did not cross the threshold for a tracked signal. The rest of the property and violent crime categories, aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft, all showed modest changes without triggering any additional signals.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, up 96% from 28 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How South Fairmount compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bond Hill
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above South Fairmount's 55.
Open page →Carthage
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below South Fairmount's 55.
Open page →Mt. Washington
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below South Fairmount's 55.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for South Fairmount, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.