South Cumminsville Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
South Cumminsville is a Mill Creek Valley neighborhood west of Camp Washington, along Beekman Street and the rail corridor. Predominantly low-density residential with significant industrial land along the creek and an extensive freight rail edge.
April 2026 produced a single signal in South Cumminsville: a rare-event sexual assault, a category that seldom surfaces in this neighborhood. The rest of the tracked categories were within normal range — one notable signal across the month is a notably quiet read.
Below that, the 12-month trend lines are broadly downward across property crime. Other larceny is down 70.6% against the prior year (5 incidents vs. 17), theft from vehicle is down 40.0% (6 vs. 10), and burglary is down 25.0% (6 vs. 8). The one counter-movement is aggravated assault, up 50.0% over the same window — 9 incidents against 6 — though the volumes are small enough that a few cases drive the percentage.
Notable signals 1
Sexual Assault
1 incident in the past 90 days. No prior occurrence in the analysis window.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How South Cumminsville compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
East Westwood
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below South Cumminsville's 1.
Open page →Mt. Lookout
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below South Cumminsville's 1.
Open page →Oakley
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below South Cumminsville's 1.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for South Cumminsville, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.