Mt. Adams Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Mt. Adams is a hillside neighborhood overlooking downtown from the east, climbing from Columbia Parkway to the ridge crowned by the Church of the Immaculata. Dense Victorian rowhouses and a tightly packed bar and restaurant strip along St. Gregory Street and Hatch Street.
June 2026 in Mt. Adams was quiet across nearly every tracked category. The one signal — a zero-event result for Homicide — reflects an absence of activity rather than a directional move, and no categories registered spikes, drops, sustained shifts, or rare events this month.
The 12-month volume figures show the broader context. Theft from Vehicle has risen 53.8% against the prior year, 20 incidents vs. 13, the most notable structural gap in the neighborhood's recent data. Motor Vehicle Theft moved the opposite direction — down 76.9%, 3 incidents against 13 the year before. Other Larceny held flat at 6 incidents in each period. With zero tracked signals in June, those 12-month trends are the most informative read on where Mt. Adams currently sits.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Mt. Adams compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Lower Price Hill_Queensgate
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mt. Adams's 0.
Open page →Madisonville
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mt. Adams's 0.
Open page →Mt. Airy
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mt. Adams's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mt. Adams, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.