Bond Hill Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Bond Hill sits in the Mill Creek Valley north of Avondale, organized around Reading Road and Paddock Road. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes with a mix of light industrial and commercial along the Reading Road corridor.
June 2026 produced a single tracked signal in Bond Hill — a sustained structural shift in motor vehicle theft, the only category that moved enough to register this month. One signal in one direction is a narrow month, but the signal itself reflects a multi-year pattern, not a one-month dip.
Motor vehicle theft is down 51.5% against the prior 12 months — 32 incidents in the current window versus 66 in the year before. That's a sustained-shift signal, meaning the decline has held across multiple months, not just a single quiet period. Burglary also fell meaningfully over the same window, down 37.1% (22 vs. 35), and other larceny dropped 17.6% (56 vs. 68). Neither of those two crossed the threshold for a formal signal this month, but both reinforce the same broad direction: property crime in Bond Hill has been running below prior-year levels across multiple categories. Robbery, theft from vehicle, and aggravated assault held flat or near-flat.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 32, down 52% from 66 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Bond Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Winton Hills
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bond Hill's 32.
Open page →Carthage
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Bond Hill's 32.
Open page →East Walnut Hills
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Bond Hill's 32.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bond Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.