South Shore Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
South Shore is a South Side lakefront neighborhood organized around 71st and 79th Streets, anchored by the South Shore Cultural Center (the former South Shore Country Club) and Rainbow Beach Park. Mixed mid-rise apartments and single-family homes, bordered by Lake Michigan to the east and the Metra Electric line to the west.
South Shore's June 2026 briefing is narrow but structurally significant: two signals, both on robbery, one a single-month below-trend move and one a multi-month sustained shift. That combination — a short-term drop reinforced by a longer structural decline — is a different story than a noisy one-off month.
Robbery is down 33.8% against the prior 12 months, 192 incidents versus 290. The sustained-shift signal means that gap has been building across multiple months, not just June. Every other tracked category — aggravated assault, burglary, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, homicide — fell within its expected range this month, making robbery the sole category driving the South Shore signal picture.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 192 incidents — about 36% below the 300 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 192, down 34% from 290 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How South Shore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Near West Side
191 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below South Shore's 192.
Open page →Loop
200 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above South Shore's 192.
Open page →Greater Grand Crossing
170 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 below South Shore's 192.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for South Shore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.