Jefferson Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Jefferson Park is a Far Northwest Side neighborhood, a major transit hub anchored by the CTA Blue Line's Jefferson Park station and the Metra Union Pacific-Northwest Line. Predominantly single-family homes and brick bungalows, organized around Milwaukee Avenue and Lawrence Avenue.
Jefferson Park had a minimal April 2026 — one tracked category moved, and it moved downward. Burglary is the sole signal this month, a below-trend drop against the prior-year baseline.
Burglary's 12-month total stands at 19 incidents, down 48.6% against the prior 12 months (37). That is the sharpest year-over-year shift in the neighborhood's tracked categories this period. Everything else — robbery, motor vehicle theft, other larceny, vandalism, aggravated assault, sexual assault — ran within normal range and generated no signals.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 55% below the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Jefferson Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Hegewisch
17 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Jefferson Park's 19.
Open page →Mount Greenwood
17 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Jefferson Park's 19.
Open page →Riverdale
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Jefferson Park's 19.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jefferson Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.