Jefferson Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Jefferson Park is a Far Northwest Side neighborhood, a major transit hub anchored by the CTA Blue Line's Jefferson Park station and the Metra Union Pacific-Northwest Line. Predominantly single-family homes and brick bungalows, organized around Milwaukee Avenue and Lawrence Avenue.
Jefferson Park had a narrow month — one tracked category moved, and it was burglary running well below trend. The structural picture is more interesting than a single signal suggests: several categories shifted meaningfully over the trailing 12 months, with property crime broadly lower and a few violent categories edging up.
Burglary is the clearest move: 18 incidents over the current 12 months against 39 in the year before, a 53.8% reduction. Motor vehicle theft is also down sharply, 48 vs 72 over the same window (−33.3%), and robbery has fallen from 18 to 13 (−27.8%). Against that, aggravated assault is up 9.4% year-over-year and sexual assault has risen from 6 to 9 incidents, a 50.0% change on a small base. Everything else — other larceny, vandalism — stayed within a narrow band of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 18 incidents — about 58% below the 43 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Jefferson Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Mount Greenwood
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Jefferson Park's 18.
Open page →Hegewisch
16 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Jefferson Park's 18.
Open page →Montclare
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Jefferson Park's 18.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jefferson Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.