Calumet Heights Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Calumet Heights is a Far South Side residential neighborhood organized around the Pill Hill subdivision and Stony Island Avenue. Predominantly single-family brick homes, bordered by the Calumet River industrial corridor to the east and the South Chicago neighborhood to the south.
September 2026 produced a single signal in Calumet Heights: a sustained structural shift in vandalism, not a one-month dip but a multi-month pattern embedded in the trailing 12-month window. Every other tracked category ran within its normal range.
Vandalism is down 28.2% against the prior 12 months, 158 incidents against 220 in the year before. That move accounts for the entire signal picture this month. Across the broader category mix, the 12-month trend is broadly downward: aggravated assault is off 26.0% (71 vs. 96), burglary is off 40.8% (29 vs. 49), and motor vehicle theft is down 19.1% (165 vs. 204), though none of those reached anomaly threshold this briefing.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 158, down 28% from 220 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Calumet Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Dunning
157 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Calumet Heights's 158.
Open page →Hegewisch
159 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Calumet Heights's 158.
Open page →Lincoln Square
164 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Calumet Heights's 158.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Calumet Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.