Northeast Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Northeast Seattle covers the area east of I-5 and north of the Ship Canal, including Ravenna, Bryant, View Ridge, Wedgwood, Sand Point, and Laurelhurst. Predominantly single-family residential anchored by University Village shopping center, Magnuson Park on Lake Washington, and the Burke-Gilman Trail.
Northeast Seattle had a structurally quiet June 2026 — two sustained shifts and a zero-event signal, all pointing downward. No spikes registered this month. The pattern is not a single-month dip but a multi-year compression in robbery and motor vehicle theft, both of which have been running below their prior-year baselines for long enough to register as structural changes rather than noise.
Robbery is down 63.6% against the prior 12 months, 28 incidents vs. 77 the year before — the steeper of the two sustained shifts. Motor vehicle theft is down 26.6%, 273 vs. 372 over the same window. Every other tracked category also ran below its prior-year level, with other larceny off 18.6%, theft from vehicle off 15.2%, and vandalism off 23.4%. Arson is the one exception — 8 incidents against 5 the prior year, a 60.0% increase — though at those volumes the move carries limited weight.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 64% from 77 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 273, down 27% from 372 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Northeast compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Beacon Hill
275 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Northeast's 273.
Open page →Northwest
266 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Northeast's 273.
Open page →Northgate
249 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 below Northeast's 273.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Northeast, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.