Westwood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Westwood is a Westside neighborhood centered on the UCLA campus and Westwood Village. Anchored by the Hammer Museum, the Fox and Bruin theaters in the village, and the Wilshire Boulevard high-rise corridor along the southern edge.
Six categories moved in Westwood in April 2026 — four ran below trend as single-month drops, and two registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft leads the tracked signals: 45 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 82.36, and down 40.8% against the prior 12-month total of 76. Theft from vehicle and other larceny both ran below trend as well — other larceny is down 39.7% year-over-year, 231 incidents vs. 383. Burglary is the one category moving against that grain, up 59.0% over the prior 12 months (62 vs. 39), and stands out in an otherwise declining picture.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 45% below the 82 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 100 incidents — about 49% below the 196 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 231 incidents — about 35% below the 353 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 24% below the 140 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 231, down 40% from 383 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 45, down 41% from 76 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Westwood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Manchester Square
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Westwood's 45.
Open page →West Los Angeles
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Westwood's 45.
Open page →West Hills
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Westwood's 45.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Westwood has spiked other larceny historically (6 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 11 | 36.4% |
| Burglary | 9 | 0% |
| Other larceny | 6 | 100% |
Each row shows Westwood's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Westwood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.