Vermont Vista Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Vermont Vista is a South LA neighborhood organized around Vermont Avenue at the southern edge of the city. Predominantly small single-family homes; bordered by the city of Athens to the south.
Eight categories moved in Vermont Vista this March — six ran below trend for the month, with two registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The dominant shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle, aggravated assault, and burglary are the three strongest signals, all below trend. Theft from vehicle's trailing 12-month total stands at 65, down 38.1% against the prior year's 105. Aggravated assault is down 20.5% (155 vs. 195), and burglary has fallen 39.2% — 31 incidents against 51 the year before. The two sustained-shift signals indicate at least some of this movement reflects a structural change rather than a single quiet month. Every other tracked category was within or below its normal range; homicide is the one exception, with 8 incidents in the current 12 months against 6 prior, but it did not register among the month's notable signals.
Notable signals 6
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 65 incidents — about 62% below the 169 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 155 incidents — about 33% below the 231 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 48% below the 59 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 138 incidents — about 54% below the 300 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 90 incidents — about 25% below the 121 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 36% below the 138 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 138, down 32% from 202 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 65, down 38% from 105 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Vermont Vista compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Glassell Park
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Vermont Vista's 65.
Open page →Gramercy Park
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Vermont Vista's 65.
Open page →Windsor Square
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Vermont Vista's 65.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Vermont Vista, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.