Vermont Vista Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Vermont Vista is a South LA neighborhood organized around Vermont Avenue at the southern edge of the city. Predominantly small single-family homes; bordered by the city of Athens to the south.
Four tracked signals shaped Vermont Vista's August 2026 briefing: two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The month's structure is broadly downward across property and violent crime, not a single outlier but a consistent pattern across multiple categories.
Burglary is the clearest mover. The trailing 12-month total stands at 22, down from 52 the prior year, a 57.7% reduction that qualifies both as a below-trend single-month signal and a multi-month sustained shift. Aggravated assault also ran below trend this month, with the 12-month count at 167 against 193 the year before, a 13.5% reduction. Robbery and motor vehicle theft moved the other way, up 18.6% and 38.9% respectively over the same 12-month window, so the picture is not uniformly quiet, but the signals this month belong to the downward side of the ledger.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 60% below the 56 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 167 incidents — about 25% below the 221 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 22, down 58% from 52 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 150, up 39% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Vermont Vista compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Gramercy Park
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Vermont Vista's 22.
Open page →Rancho Park
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Vermont Vista's 22.
Open page →Beverly Crest
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Vermont Vista's 22.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Vermont Vista, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.