Vermont Vista Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Vermont Vista is a South LA neighborhood organized around Vermont Avenue at the southern edge of the city. Predominantly small single-family homes; bordered by the city of Athens to the south.
Nine categories moved in Vermont Vista this April — six ran below trend in the current month, and three registered as sustained structural shifts pointing to longer-term declines across the neighborhood. The overall shape is broadly downward, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Aggravated assault leads the notable signals: the trailing 12-month total is 148, down 25.3% against 198 the prior year, and well below the multi-year baseline of 230.57 — a sustained structural drop, not just a quiet month. Theft from vehicle and burglary also ran below trend, with theft from vehicle down 35.9% year-over-year (66 vs. 103) and burglary down 36.7% (31 vs. 49). Everything else tracked within the same downward pattern.
Notable signals 6
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 148 incidents — about 36% below the 231 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 66 incidents — about 61% below the 168 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 48% below the 59 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 132 incidents — about 56% below the 298 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 84 incidents — about 39% below the 138 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 90 incidents — about 25% below the 120 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 132, down 32% from 194 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 66, down 36% from 103 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 25% from 198 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Vermont Vista compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Sylmar
147 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Vermont Vista's 148.
Open page →Reseda
137 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Vermont Vista's 148.
Open page →San Pedro
136 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Vermont Vista's 148.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Vermont Vista, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.