Valley Village Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Valley Village is a southeastern San Fernando Valley neighborhood between North Hollywood and Studio City, organized around Magnolia Boulevard. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes and small apartment buildings.
Two signals surfaced in Valley Village this August, one a single-month drop and one a longer structural shift pulling in opposite directions. Burglary ran below trend for the month, while theft from vehicle has been rising on a multi-month basis, a split that makes the neighborhood's overall picture more mixed than any single headline would suggest.
Burglary sits at 64 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down from 76 the year before, a 15.8% year-over-year decline. Theft from vehicle tells the opposite story: 178 incidents in the current 12 months against 125 in the prior year, up 42.4%. That sustained shift is structural, not a one-month blip. Every other tracked category, robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and other larceny, fell within normal range and did not cross any threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 64 incidents — about 33% below the 96 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 178, up 42% from 125 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Valley Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Green Meadows
63 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Valley Village's 64.
Open page →Larchmont
62 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Valley Village's 64.
Open page →Hollywood Hills West
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Valley Village's 64.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Valley Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.