Vermont Knolls Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Vermont Knolls is a South LA residential neighborhood around Vermont Avenue and 80th Street, between Vermont-Slauson and Manchester Square. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a tight grid, anchored by John Muir Middle School and the Vermont Avenue commercial strip.
Four categories ran below trend in Vermont Knolls this April — all four signals are drops, with no spikes, sustained shifts, or rare events in the mix. The pattern is broadly downward across both violent and property crime categories.
Sexual assault is the most structurally notable move: the trailing 12-month total of 31 incidents sits well below the baseline and is down 29.5% against the prior year's 44. Robbery follows a similar line — 93 incidents over the past 12 months against 130 the year before, a 28.5% reduction. Other larceny also ran below trend, down 25.9% year-over-year (80 vs. 108). Motor vehicle theft is the one counter-trend category in the data, up 12.6% over the prior 12 months (232 vs. 206), though it did not register a signal this month.
Notable signals 4
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 34% below the 47 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 93 incidents — about 40% below the 154 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 80 incidents — about 25% below the 106 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 99 incidents — about 37% below the 158 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Vermont Knolls compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Reseda
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Vermont Knolls's 31.
Open page →Broadway-Manchester
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Vermont Knolls's 31.
Open page →Historic South-Central
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Vermont Knolls's 31.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Vermont Knolls has spiked other larceny historically (7 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 7 | 100% |
| Aggravated assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Vermont Knolls's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Vermont Knolls, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.