Vermont Knolls Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Vermont Knolls is a South LA residential neighborhood around Vermont Avenue and 80th Street, between Vermont-Slauson and Manchester Square. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a tight grid, anchored by John Muir Middle School and the Vermont Avenue commercial strip.
Vermont Knolls recorded five tracked signals in March 2026 — four one-month below-trend drops and one sustained structural shift. The movement is broad rather than concentrated: four separate categories ran below their expected levels this month, with no spikes or rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Sexual assault leads the top signals, with the trailing 12-month total at 32 incidents against a prior-year count of 45 — down 28.9%. Other larceny fell more sharply, 78 incidents over the current 12 months against 114 in the prior year, a 31.6% reduction. Theft from vehicle was the quietest mover of the three, essentially flat at 107 vs. 109, but still registered a below-trend signal. Motor vehicle theft is the one category moving the other direction, up 6.6% year-over-year at 226 incidents — the only category in the neighborhood running above its prior-year level.
Notable signals 4
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 32% below the 47 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 78 incidents — about 26% below the 106 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 33% below the 159 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 104 incidents — about 33% below the 155 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 32% from 114 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Vermont Knolls compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Florence
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Vermont Knolls's 32.
Open page →Koreatown
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Vermont Knolls's 32.
Open page →Broadway-Manchester
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Vermont Knolls's 32.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Vermont Knolls, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.