Silver Lake Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Silver Lake is an Eastside neighborhood organized around the Silver Lake Reservoir and the Sunset Junction commercial corridor at Sunset and Santa Monica Boulevards. Hilly residential streets with a dense small-business strip; bordered by Echo Park to the east and Los Feliz to the north.
Five categories moved in Silver Lake this March — three ran below trend in a single month, and two reflect structural sustained shifts in the trailing 12-month window. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Burglary is the most prominent single-month signal, with 82 incidents in the current 12 months against a baseline of 134.31 and a prior-year total of 101 — down 18.8% year over year. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft also ran below trend this month, and the 12-month picture reinforces the direction: theft from vehicle is down 32.3% (176 vs. 260) and other larceny is down 54.0% (159 vs. 346), the two deepest year-over-year moves in the category list. Aggravated assault is the one category moving the other way, up 16.7% over the prior 12 months (42 vs. 36), but it did not register as a monthly signal this period.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 82 incidents — about 39% below the 134 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 176 incidents — about 54% below the 386 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 140 incidents — about 32% below the 207 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 159, down 54% from 346 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 176, down 32% from 260 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Silver Lake compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Hollywood Hills
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Silver Lake's 82.
Open page →Pacoima
80 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Silver Lake's 82.
Open page →Hyde Park
79 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Silver Lake's 82.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Silver Lake, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.