Hollywood Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Hollywood Hills is a hillside neighborhood in the Santa Monica Mountains north of Hollywood, organized around Mulholland Drive and the canyon roads (Laurel, Coldwater, Beachwood). Anchored by the Hollywood Sign, the Hollywood Reservoir, and Runyon Canyon Park.
Hollywood Hills registered one tracked signal in March 2026 — an other-larceny spike, against an otherwise broad downward trend across the neighborhood's crime categories. With only one category triggering a signal, the shape of the month is narrow: a single above-trend move in larceny surrounded by declines across eight other tracked buckets.
Other larceny is up 6.1% over the trailing 12 months — 190 incidents against 179 in the prior year — the only category running above its prior-year level. Everything else moved in the opposite direction: aggravated assault down 14.0% (43 vs. 50), theft from vehicle down 14.2% (187 vs. 218), vandalism down 15.5% (131 vs. 155), and motor vehicle theft down 14.3% (72 vs. 84). Arson recorded zero incidents over the trailing 12 months, against 6 in the year prior. The larceny signal is real, but it sits against a backdrop where the bulk of tracked crime in Hollywood Hills is running below year-ago levels.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 190 incidents — about 23% above the 154 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hollywood Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Watts
189 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Hollywood Hills's 190.
Open page →Los Feliz
194 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Hollywood Hills's 190.
Open page →Florence
195 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Hollywood Hills's 190.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hollywood Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.