Mar Vista Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Mar Vista is a Westside neighborhood between Venice and Culver City, organized around the Venice and Centinela Boulevard corridors. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes and small apartment buildings; the Mar Vista Farmers Market on Grand View Boulevard is a weekly anchor.
Seven categories moved in Mar Vista this April — four ran below trend and three registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft leads the signals: the current 12-month total is 72, down from 130 against the multi-year baseline and down 35.7% against the prior 12 months. Burglary is the sharpest year-over-year move in the dataset, falling to 25 incidents from 79 — a 68.4% reduction over the same comparison window. Robbery and theft from vehicle also ran below trend, and vandalism, other larceny, and aggravated assault account for the three sustained shifts, with aggravated assault the one outlier moving in the opposite direction: 36 incidents over the current 12 months against 26 in the prior year, a 38.5% increase.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 72 incidents — about 45% below the 130 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 80% below the 128 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 8 incidents — about 62% below the 21 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 104 incidents — about 56% below the 239 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 25, down 68% from 79 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 36% from 112 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 104, down 30% from 149 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mar Vista compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Hollywood Hills
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mar Vista's 72.
Open page →Harvard Heights
74 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Mar Vista's 72.
Open page →Arlington Heights
76 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Mar Vista's 72.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Mar Vista has spiked burglary historically (10 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 0% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 10 | 0% |
| Theft from vehicle | 5 | 0% |
Each row shows Mar Vista's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mar Vista, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.