Highland Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Highland Park is a Northeast LA neighborhood organized around Figueroa Street and York Boulevard. Anchored by the Southwest Museum of the American Indian (now part of the Autry), Sycamore Grove Park, and the Metro L Line's Highland Park station.
Six categories moved in Highland Park this March — three one-month below-trend signals and three sustained multi-year structural shifts, all pointing in the same direction. Property crime is broadly lower across the neighborhood, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle leads the tracked signals: the current 12-month total is 77 incidents, down 57.9% against the prior year's 183, and well below the multi-year baseline of 208.4. Motor vehicle theft and vandalism both ran below trend as well — down 43.9% and 30.1% respectively on a 12-month basis. The three sustained-shift signals mean these aren't one-month anomalies; the lower volumes have held long enough to shift the structural baseline.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 77 incidents — about 63% below the 208 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 115 incidents — about 52% below the 241 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 130 incidents — about 25% below the 173 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 77, down 58% from 183 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 115, down 44% from 205 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 130, down 30% from 186 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Highland Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Fairfax
76 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Highland Park's 77.
Open page →Lincoln Heights
78 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Highland Park's 77.
Open page →Los Feliz
76 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Highland Park's 77.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Highland Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.